Who’s ready for some panic? Because I’m certainly expecting it.
With the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report coming out on Tuesday, I thought it would be good to touch on the Federal Reserve’s favorite benchmark for inflation… and what to expect from the CPI data.
On Thursday this past week, the media was doing what it does best: gunning for clicks and stirring up a panic. The world was obviously coming to an end.
The next day?
Everything was great — according to the headlines.
And now we’ve got a number coming out that could cause some commotion…
On Tuesday, July 13, CPI data will be released and because the Fed uses that to gauge inflation… the media will too.
But anyone who’s been reading Fortune Research or Venture Society knows that I don’t give a hoot about CPI. It’s a backward-looking number.
By which I mean, it only reports on inflation that has already happened. I don’t care about what has already happened… because I can’t trade the past. But I don’t want anyone to wake up and start panicking, so here’s what I expect from the CPI data.
First off, it’s already beginning…
Can you imagine what the headlines will look like after the report comes out?
If you’re wondering what to expect from CPI data… I expect it could be the biggest number we’ve ever seen in our lifetime.
But that’s only because last year was the lowest number we had ever seen in our lifetime… And how high or low that number is will ultimately shape what the media says about it.
If it’s low, they may simply shrug their shoulders and move on to some other invented crisis. And if it’s higher?
Cue the panic narrative.
I don’t know how they’ll react, but I do know they will.
So if you don’t know what to expect from CPI data… pay attention. And not to the narratives and headlines, but to the circumstances surrounding what could be a very large number.
All the best,
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